Bitcoin opened Thursday near $81,170 on Binance, barely moving after the Federal Reserve held interest rates but left the door open to another hike in December. Ether traded around $2,350, and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have now taken in money for two straight sessions.
The Fed holds, but markets still price a December hike
The Fed kept its target range at 3.75%–4.00% in a 10–2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a quarter-point increase. September's hike, the first since 2023, passed 12–0. The new statement calls economic activity "strong," up from "solid" last month, and says inflation remains elevated.
Bitcoin barely reacted, edging up about 0.2% to roughly $80,950 right after the announcement before holding between $81,000 and $81,100. A hold was already priced in, so the focus is on the signal for year-end: CME's FedWatch tool shows about an 86% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec. 8–9 meeting, up from 78% a day earlier.
Bond yields and oil help explain why rate-hike expectations remain firm. The 10-year Treasury yield sits near 5.03% and the 2-year around 4.73%–4.78%. WTI crude trades near $101.70 a barrel and Brent near $111.16, while U.S. consumer prices rose 3.7% year over year in September. When Treasuries pay high yields with almost no risk, a non-yielding asset like Bitcoin tends to struggle to attract fresh money.
Majors: sideways, with memecoins moving more
During Wednesday's session, Bitcoin briefly topped $81,400 as Asian chip stocks rallied, then drifted back to about $81,000. Ether traded near $2,354, XRP near $1.32, Solana near $102 and BNB close to $760, all within a few percent of the prior day. The memecoin PEPE gained roughly 9%–10%, and Zcash rose about 5%.
Futures: modest liquidations, funding not overheated
Derivatives data for the 24 hours through Asian trading on Oct. 28, before the Fed decision, showed $183.6 million in liquidations, up 38% from the day before. Bitcoin accounted for $56.4 million, Ether $46 million and Zcash $8.6 million. Bitcoin's funding rate was 0.0090% and Ether's 0.0079%, both under the 0.01% baseline. Total futures volume was about $163.2 billion, up 7.5%, and aggregate open interest rose 1.3%. Aggressive buyers made up 50.7% of taker volume, nearly even with sellers.
In options, Bitcoin's one-week put-call skew fell below 1% from nearly 10% a week earlier, a sign that short-term hedging demand has cooled. One-, three- and six-month skews still lean toward puts.
ETF flows: Bitcoin funds add for a second day
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $176 million on Oct. 27, a second straight inflow day after $110.3 million on Oct. 26. That brings the week's total to roughly $286 million, far smaller than the roughly $1 billion three-day run earlier this month.
A new research report sheds light on who has been selling. Nine hedge funds and banks, including Millennium, Goldman Sachs and Tudor, cut about 68,000 BTC of spot ETF exposure, more than the 48,000 BTC decline across all 13F filers. The main driver was the cash-and-carry trade, which buys ETF shares and shorts CME futures, running out of profit: the front-month basis shrank to about 0.6 percentage points over Treasury bills. Morgan Stanley's wealth arm and sovereign funds such as Mubadala bought instead. The 13F data runs only through June.
Other overnight news
Shareholders of Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, approved daily dividends on four preferred stocks with 99.3% of votes in favor. The STRC preferred begins paying daily in November, with the other three following in January 2027. Coinbase reports third-quarter results today, after Robinhood's crypto revenue fell about 55%, leaving analysts split on whether trading is truly recovering.
What it means for traders
For futures traders, the picture this morning is a sideways market with large macro risk still ahead. Funding below the baseline and balanced taker flow suggest positioning is not stacked on one side, which is why liquidations around the Fed stayed at $183.6 million. Still, liquidations rose 38%, and Ether accounted for nearly as much as Bitcoin, so Ether's swings deserve extra attention.
The next items to watch are the U.S. data calendar: the October jobs report on Nov. 6, October inflation on Nov. 10 and the Fed's Dec. 8–9 meeting with new projections. If inflation or oil keep climbing, odds of a hike would rise and higher yields typically bring bigger swings in risk assets. ETF flows also bear watching, since small inflows like this week's are not enough to call a trend.
You can use the position and liquidation price calculator to check risk before opening leveraged trades in a data-heavy week, and the exchange rankings to compare futures fees.